Overview

The model impact of investments (e.g., marketing or sales investments) on sales, as part of a broader historical decomp model. It uses a learned decay process and multiple regularization techniques to produce an increasing ROI curve that eventually saturates, which directly influences the prediction of sales. This impact is applied additively on top of a baseline sales estimate, contributing to the final predicted sales value. The design ensures that the resulting ROI curve is economically realistic and grounded in prior knowledge.

Things to know

1. BetaGammaDecay: The core module for modeling the diminishing returns or decays of investments over time using a Beta-Gamma model. It calculates the total and instantaneous impacts of investments on sales based on learned parameters.
2. multiplicative_impact: Tensor representing external multipliers to the impact of investments, applied multiplicatively to the sales predictions.
3. hierarchy: A mapping representing hierarchical structures, like categories or regions, influencing the sales response.